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Clarkson Research: The seaborne trade volume is expected to decrease by 1 billion tons in 2020

2023.01.10


As 2020 entered the second half of the year, Clarkson studied and collated the market data and information for the first half of the year, and released the latest report on the potential impact of Covid-19 on the shipping market (the sixth edition). Based on the previous analysis framework, we constantly update relevant information and data to provide customers with a detailed analysis of the potential impact of Covid-19 on the shipping market rather than a simple news report tracking. The following is an excerpt of the core ideas in the report.
Clarkson's "basket" maritime trade index
Track the monthly trend of maritime trade
In May 2020, the global monthly "basket" maritime trade index fell by 10.9% year-on-year.
In 2020, it is estimated that the total volume of seaborne trade reduced by the epidemic will reach 1 billion tons; The volume of seaborne trade in the whole year will decline by 5.6%, the largest decline in more than 35 years. The month-on-month fluctuation of monthly/quarterly data may produce a "window period" of tight transport capacity, which will bring favorable opportunities to the market. We have constructed several medium-long term maritime trade recovery scenarios (in some cases, it may take several years to recover the previous trade level).
Clarkson global ocean-going cargo ship berthing index
Track daily ship docking activities at the port
In June 2020, the global ocean-going cargo ship berthing index decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, with a decrease of 9.9% compared with May, indicating that the demand side may have reached the bottom and gradually recovered.
China's port berthing activities have gradually recovered (since April, the number of berths of some ship types has exceeded the level of the same period in 2019); The monthly performance of berthing data in other major trading regions is still weak: in June, European ports - 11%, American ports - 16%, but the decline is narrow, and Japanese ports - 18%; However, weekly data has stabilized or shown a recovery trend.
Non cargo ships (such as cruise ships and ferries) are more seriously affected by the COVID-19, but the recent recovery trend is more obvious. The number of global ferry stops fell 45% year-on-year in April this year, and slowed to 35% in June.
Clarkson Maritime Index
Track the weekly trend of shipping market
Despite the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on global economy and trade, the growth rate of the Clarkson Shipping Index in the first half of the year reached the strongest level in nearly a decade. The average value of the index is 16373 US dollars/day (39% higher than the average value of the same period last year and 33% higher than the average value of the past 10 years). The driving factors include the "surge" in the tanker market freight, the steady earnings of liquefied petroleum gas tankers for most of the time, the "occasional" improvement in the bulk carrier market and the lower fuel price.
The impact of the demand for floating oil storage on the tanker freight market well shows that not all events have a negative impact on the shipping market. Other events, including port congestion and inventory demand, will also have similar potential effects. The inefficient use of transport capacity caused by port delay/ship positioning/ship restart may also create a "window period" for freight improvement.
Outlook of shipping market segment
The potential impact of the epidemic on each shipping market segment is different, and the potential recovery of trade in the future is also different (see page 16). The special challenges faced by the cruise ship, ferry, automobile ship and marine engineering ship (see marine engineering market tracking for details) market continue; The tanker market is gradually slowing down; The volume of container trade has been hit, but the transport capacity is now well controlled; As the "window period" of the dry bulk carrier freight market opens, the overall performance of dry bulk carriers in the second half of the year may be better.

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